6 dark-horse races that could determine the House majority
By Michael Jones
Recent history has proven that presidential legacies aren’t defined simply by winning an election. Democratic control of the House and a Senate supermajority nudged Barack Obama’s signature legislative accomplishment—the Affordable Care Act—over the finish line. Donald Trump slashed taxes for billionaires and big corporations despite zealous opposition from Democrats because his party controlled both chambers of Congress. The same goes for Joe Biden and two of the major laws he signed: The American Rescue Plan, to pull the US economy from the brink of recession during the pandemic and the Inflation Reduction Act, which is full of health care and climate investments people and communities have started to feel the benefits from over the past year.
Kamala Harris has outlined an ambitious policy agenda on the campaign trail that will require congressional cooperation to enact. And in the odds-on event the Senate flips to Republicans next month, she’ll also need a legislative check on efforts from the Senate GOP to pass any provisions from Project 2025.
This brings us to the House, a chamber Republicans won by less than a dozen seats instead of the several dozen they were forecasted to recapture. Democratic underperformance in two usual strongholds—California and New York—also helped the GOP’s cause.
“We have important races all across the country, and certainly there are several in New York, which include Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and in central New York,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told reporters in his final press conference last month before lawmakers left Washington to hit the campaign trail. “There are also important races in the Central Valley of California and Southern California as well.”
Jeffries also pointed to contests in two redrawn districts in Alabama and Louisiana as key pick-up opportunities, along with races in the presidential battleground states, including Nevada and North Carolina.
“It’s an expansive map,” Jeffries added. “And House Democrats are increasingly on offense because we have a track record of accomplishment, a vision for the future to make life better for everyday Americans, and a clear contrast with the House Republican track record, which has produced nothing but chaos, dysfunction, and extremism.”
Keep reading for six more dark-horse House races to watch on Election Night that could determine if Jeffries will make history as the first Black speaker in US history.
Iowa 01
I bet you didn’t think we’d start in a state that rapidly progressed from one Obama won in 2008 and 2012 into a Trumpian GOP stronghold. But in its first district—one of the least Republican in the state—Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who was just elected in 2020, is facing a fierce challenge from former Iowa Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who’s running to restore abortion rights and advance comprehensive immigration reform, among other priorities.
The upcoming election is the first since the Iowa Supreme Court allowed the state’s six-week abortion ban to take effect. Bohannan committed during a recent debate to restore Roe v. Wade. Miller-Meeks cosponsored a bill in 2021 that says life begins at fertilization, which would ban all abortions without exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother. The bill also does not outline protections for fertility treatments. And while she didn’t co-sponsor the legislation this term, Miller-Meeks has said she supports a national 15-week ban on abortion with exceptions.
Miller-Meeks pointed to a bill every House Democrat—and two Republicans—opposed and that has spent the past 532 days collecting dust in the Senate as the solution to the country’s challenges at the southern border. Bohannan said she supports both creating pathways to citizenship and securing the border. She has also expressed openness to the bipartisan border deal the White House negotiated with a group of senators—including James Lankford, an ultraconservative from Oklahoma—that would have provided resources for thousands more immigration and border officials.
Bohannan was added to the first round of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “red to blue” program in January, which provides candidates with organizational and fundraising support to help them continue building winning campaigns.
Arizona 06
In April, the Arizona Supreme Court upheld the state’s almost 160-year near-total ban on abortion care. The 1864 ban—written 48 years before Arizona became a state and while slavery was still legal and women were prohibited from voting—includes no exceptions for health, rape, or incest and will wipe out nearly all access to abortion care in the state, which currently has a 15-week ban.
Following the Arizona high court’s ruling, Rep. Juan Ciscomani called the 1864 law archaic.
“We must do better for women and I call on our state policymakers to immediately address this in a bipartisan manner.”
But there’s a problem: Ciscomani, who was first elected to the House in 2022, previously called the day the Dobbs decision came down “historic” and said the states should determine abortion rights. (The Arizona ruling mentioned the Dobbs decision 22 times.)
“I’m proudly pro-life and will always defend life as a member of Congress,” he said at the time. “As a husband and a father, I believe that life is precious and as a country, we must protect women and children in every way possible.”
This inconsistency on a top issue is what Kristen Engel, a former Arizona state senator and representative, hopes will work in her favor this year as she seeks to unseat Ciscomani.
Engel, another DCCC red-to-blue candidate, is also a fierce environmental advocate who has promised Arizonans to address the water and climate crisis that threatens the future of the constituents of the southern Arizona district.
Virginia 02
If you were running in this race, you’d rather be Misty Cotter Smasal than Jen Kiggans, the Navy veteran and first-term member who ran on serving as a moderate voice in Congress but has found herself outmatched by the vocal MAGA wing of the House Republican Conference.
The DCCC issued a polling memo this morning that shows the race is tied due to abortion as a motivating issue.
Smasal has centered abortion rights in her campaign and called out Kiggans for voting to prevent women servicemembers from seeking reproductive care when they’re stationed in states with abortion bans.
The D-Trip memo also points to the three in four Black voters in the district who say there’s “no chance they would consider” voting for Kiggans. Democrats feel Smasal has room to grow as she consolidates Harris supporters down the ballot. Kiggans is performing on par with Trump, indicating she’s hit her ceiling with GOP voters in the district.
Smasal, a red-to-blue candidate, is also endorsed by members of Virginia’s Democratic congressional delegation, Leader Jeffries, and advocacy groups in gun violence prevention, reproductive freedom, and veterans’ rights.
Wisconsin 03
Welcome to one of the battleground states Jeffries told us about, where Harris is looking to defend this Blue Wall must-win and Sen. Tammy Baldwin is hard at work to win a third term.
In the state’s 3rd congressional district, Rebecca Cooke has a chance to unseat Rep. Derrick Van Orden, one of Trump’s most ardent supporters on Capitol Hill.
She’s pitching voters on a set of mainstream Democratic priorities: increasing health care access and affordability, investing in middle-class families, and protecting and expanding reproductive freedom.
Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL who attended the January 6th “Stop the Steal” rally and was at the Capitol during the insurrection, is known around the Hill for all the wrong reasons. He shouted “Lies!” at President Biden during his State of the Union address in March after Biden criticized Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, Van Orden allegedly lashed out at a group of Senate Pages lying on the floor of the Capitol Rotunda, taking photos of the interior of the Capitol dome, a tradition during the pages’ final week of service.
This race could come down to how the candidates at the top of the ticket perform.
New Jersey 07
Rep. Tom Kean has been a target for Democrats since he was elected in 2022 as one of 19 Republicans who represent districts that voted for Biden in 2020.
He’s up against Susan Altman, a former college and professional basketball player who later became a teacher and basketball coach, who is taking on corruption, which she calls New Jersey’s biggest tax so the state can invest in restoring parks, funding public schools, and rebuilding infrastructure.
While considered a moderate, Kean has been criticized for aligning himself with Trump. And though he describes himself as pro-choice, Kean has voted against the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would have restored the protections of Roe v. Wade. He voted for a bill that would penalize healthcare practitioners who fail to provide care for an infant that is “born alive” from an abortion. However, it’s already unlawful for doctors not to do so in these rare instances.
Altman has said these votes prove Kean can’t be trusted to stand up to the extremists in his party to protect reproductive rights.
Michigan 10
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) campaigned in Central Michigan last weekend for several candidates whose success is the key to him remaining in Republican leadership.
Rep. John James, an Army veteran and former executive at a supply chain management service company, received support from the speaker as James faces headwinds from former county and federal prosecutor Carl Marlinga to represent the state’s 10th district.
Based on Marlinga’s professional experience, it’s no surprise he’s running to defend democracy from Trump and his supporters, of which James is one. If elected to Congress, he plans to prioritize universal daycare, clean drinking water, and subsidized home repair loans.
This month, the Detroit Free Press endorsed Marlinga. The editorial board described Marlinga as “clear-eyed and capable,” not motivated by a desire for celebrity or higher office. James did not agree to an endorsement interview with the Free Press, which said he has failed to distinguish himself in pursuit of the national spotlight instead of policymaking.
If voters feel the same way less than two weeks from now, then throw this one in the Democrats’ column.
Michael Jones is an independent Capitol Hill correspondent and contributor for COURIER. He is the author of Once Upon a Hill, a newsletter about Congressional politics.
