Lauren Baer and Matt Frazier: The Hidden Metric of Political Strength
By Lauren Baer and Matt Frazier
With less than four months until election day, unprecedented uncertainty at the top of the ticket has placed America’s political parties under intense scrutiny. Voters, analysts, and the media alike are dissecting every move, policy proposal, and strategic decision as both Democrats and Republicans navigate uncharted territory. Predictably, their focus has been on the popularity of each party’s nominee and the amount of money flowing into each campaign’s coffers. However, there is a deeper, often overlooked metric that could determine the long-term success and resilience of each party: their investment in their political talent pipelines.
For both parties, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Winning the immediate fight at the polls is essential, but long-term success hinges on cultivating a diverse and robust pipeline for the next generation of leaders who can fully represent American voters and build a coalition capable of sustained, effective governance. Surprisingly, however, there has been relatively little analytic research on the parties’ respective talent pipelines and how they differ in size and scope—until now.
Last fall, Dalberg Advisors, at the request of Arena – an organization that convenes, trains, and supports the next generation of civic and political leaders – conducted a bipartisan landscape analysis of the political talent pipeline in America. This assessment included conducting interviews with 27 experts working in the field and building a comprehensive database of 90 Democratic and Republican political pipeline-building organizations, covering the nature, financial scope, and impact of these organizations’ work. It assessed every stage of the talent pipeline, including recruitment, training, campaign experience, and retention.
The findings reveal significant differences in how the parties approach their talent pipelines, and, more notably, a significant funding gap. Democratic spending on their political talent pipeline lagged far behind Republican spending, therefore undermining Democrats’ ability to win.
Since 2016, there has been a surge in new Democratic pipeline-building organizations. However, these entities are significantly underfunded compared to their conservative counterparts. When comparing the five largest Republican and Democratic pipeline-building organizations, the analysis found that Republicans invest four times as much as Democrats in supporting pipeline work. In 2020 alone, a single Republican organization spent more on pipeline-building infrastructure than the top 10 progressive organizations spent combined.
In addition to funding disparities, the research also made clear that Democratic pipeline organizations are fragmented and often fragile. Indeed, the research showed that the Democratic political talent pipeline ecosystem consists primarily of small organizations funded on short time horizons in contrast to large, long-term funded organizations on the Republican side.
Finally, the research also indicated that Democrats lag Republicans when it comes to retaining the talent they have recruited and trained. Only 11% of the Democratic organizations included in this research offer services explicitly focused on retaining talent. This oversight leads to the loss of experienced political staffers after every cycle, undermining Democrats’ return on their investments in recruitment and training, as well as their long-term strategic goals.
Democrats have been over-performing since 2016 despite these challenges, but they can’t take that for granted. Republican investment in the talent pipeline over the long term has yielded previously unimaginable gains—from statehouse supermajorities across the country to a supermajority on the Supreme Court. Democrats should assume their electoral success in the short and long term will require the same.
Critically, the research indicates that it would not take much for Democrats to regain ground. A mere 1-2% shift in Democratic political giving could close the funding gap between the largest Democratic organizations working to expand the talent pipeline and the largest Republican organizations in the space. Likewise, a shift towards long-term funding and better internal coordination can address the fragility and fragmentation in the Democratic talent pipeline ecosystem. And by focusing on retention, Democrats can build and maintain a larger, more experienced, and diverse talent pool over time, ensuring that valuable skills and knowledge are not lost, but rather leveraged for future work.
The question that should be posed now is whether or not Democrats will make these adjustments while there is still time.
In the race to secure America’s future, the Democratic Party stands at a critical juncture. As the election looms, the true measure of a party’s strength will not just be in the votes they garner today, but in the infrastructure they build and the leaders they cultivate for tomorrow.
Lauren Baer is the Managing Partner at Arena, an organization that convenes, trains, and supports the next generation of civic and political leaders. Through their work, Arena has built an inclusive community that makes politics more accessible to more people.
Matt Frazier is a Partner at Dalberg Advisors which is the largest strategic advisory firm working to build a more inclusive and sustainable world. Dalberg provides an innovative mix of services to support clients across the public, private and philanthropic sectors.
