Lauren Baer: The Billion-Dollar Cost of Democratic Myopia
By Lauren Baer
This year, in the 107 days between July 1 and November 5, Democrats raised and spent an extraordinary $1.2 billion in pursuit of the White House. That staggering sum generated historic rallies, viral online moments, and an intoxicating sense of momentum that fueled the belief that the Harris-Walz campaign was unstoppable—until it wasn’t. Now, as we reckon with the aftermath, one glaring truth demands our attention: not a cent of that money created the lasting organizing infrastructure needed to carry us into the future. For all of that spending, we have nothing permanent to show for it.
For over a quarter century, we’ve seen the same pattern: Democrats pour resources into short-term campaigns while neglecting the organizing foundation necessary to sustain Democratic power between and beyond election cycles. This chronic myopia has left the party perpetually vulnerable, prioritizing near-term wins over long-term resilience. Grassroots organizations and a small cadre of forward-thinking donors have been raising alarms about this approach for years, but their warnings have gone largely unheeded. Now, as we prepare for the challenges of a second Trump administration, the consequences are clear. The organizations we need to rely on to lead the resistance are depleted at precisely the moment we need them most. And donors at every level—grassroots and grasstops—are exhausted.
This isn’t an indictment of the Harris-Walz campaign. They faced extraordinary time constraints and fierce anti-incumbent headwinds, yet still delivered remarkable energy and engagement. Nor is this yet another post-mortem on Democratic messaging. Instead, it is an indictment of how Democratic donors have allocated resources—not just this cycle, but for decades.
The warning signs were there. Before Biden left the race, grassroots organizations, some donors, and even the press raised red flags about giving patterns that left key Democratic infrastructure organizations starved for resources at a critical moment. After Kamala took the helm, those warnings continued unheeded, even as money flowed to the top of the ticket.
It didn’t have to be that way. A modest reallocation of resources, or infusion of additional funds, could have left Democrats in a position of strength. Instead, we’re scrambling to rebuild the infrastructure necessary to restrain a Trump administration that poses an existential threat to democracy.
We can’t change the past, but we can learn from it—and we must. To rebuild and strengthen Democratic power, we have to build for the long run and from the ground up, prioritizing permanent organizing infrastructure and cultivating grassroots leadership. This is the roadmap:
First, we must commit to building organizing infrastructure that lasts beyond a single election cycle. This includes funding year-round voter registration and engagement efforts, resourcing state and local groups with a permanent on-the-ground presence, and prioritizing partnerships with trusted community organizations, faith groups, and civic leaders. Such efforts recognize that you win votes by building trust and relationships between elections, not by swooping into communities mere days before them.
Second, we must meaningfully invest in the talent pipeline that produces campaign staff, organizers, candidates, and civic leaders. This requires resourcing (instead of starving) organizations that identify, train, and cultivate authentic leaders rooted in their communities. Winning candidates and messages don’t emerge from focus groups or DC think tanks—they grow organically from the communities they serve. Investing in these leaders ensures that our movement reflects the diversity and values of the people we aim to represent.
Third, we need to change not just what we fund, but how we fund. Too often, organizations are forced to operate on short-term, project-based funding, leaving them more focused on raising money than doing the work. When donors instead embrace unrestricted funds and large, multi-year grants, they give groups the runway they need to focus on making change rather than making ends meet. We saw the potential of this approach in the post-2016 environment, but we reverted back to old habits this cycle. That mistake cannot happen again.
Finally, we need to invest in shared infrastructure that reduces the operational burdens on and mitigates risks for grassroots organizations, including communications hubs, legal support, and secure data systems. The individuals and organizations working to defend democracy and our shared values will be uniquely vulnerable under a Trump administration eager to weaponize the state and suppress opposition. If we are going to ask them to be on the frontlines, we need to provide the rear support.
We have two months to prepare for Trump’s second term, and if this year has taught Democrats anything, it is that we can quickly and massively mobilize resources when there is will. Imagine what could be accomplished if the same spigot that poured $1.2 billion into the Harris-Walz campaign opened to the grassroots organizations and organizers that will be the bulwark against Trump’s worst transgressions.
We face a choice at this moment: retreat in the wake of our defeat, or regroup to fight again. The stakes could not be higher. Our democracy depends on our ability to learn from our mistakes, adapt, and invest in the hard work of building power for the next generation. The question isn’t whether we can do it—the question is whether we will.
Lauren Baer is the Managing Partner at Arena, an organization that convenes, trains, and supports the next generation of civic and political leaders. Through their work, Arena has built an inclusive community that makes politics more accessible to more people.
